Urgency and Opportunity: Bangladesh’s Role in the Myanmar Civil War

Bangladesh will face a very challenging time regarding the Myanmar civil war. Bangladesh should have already taken military measures against battles and shelling at the border. I am not sure what our government and military are doing, but I feel like it is not enough. Rebels already control 70% of Myanmar’s territory. How long before these nationalists claim parts of Bangladesh as theirs? Rebels are already inside/on the border, and although I am not a military expert, guerrilla warfare against a conventional army is deadly, and Bangladesh has a lot to lose if a war breaks out. They already have their hands on military drones, and if you are slightly aware of the Ukro-Russian war, you will know how significant an impact a $200 drone can have in battle. An APC carrying soldiers can get easily blown up by a cheap drone. In return, a conventional army has nothing in response but to shoot in the dirt. 

What makes this situation more interesting is the global power play. China finances both sides. They are actively working with the rebels in the north and at the same time supplying weapons and diplomatic support for the junta. Both China and India have significant investment and interest in Myanmar. If Chinese-supported rebels take over Arakan, it will put India in a very bad position, and the situation in North India will worsen. If China plays its cards right, we will be looking at the collapse of northern India. Apart from China and India, the American deep state, like George Soros, funds a lot of NGOs in Myanmar, and if you have kept your eyes slightly open, you should know how NGOs are used to supply weapons. A few years back, some American officials proposed Arakan to be made part of Bangladesh. America is not going to sit and watch China gain more influence in the Indo-Pacific.

What should Bangladesh do now? I think there are far more knowledgeable persons who can decide on what to do now. But the decisions should be swift and effective. It’s about national security, so Bangladesh should have it’s priorities set, and it’s high time Bangladesh responded militarily. Bangladesh Military should push rebels out of the border and ensure the security and safe return of the citizens. There should be communication with the rebels, and before the Myanmar Junta collapses, Bangladesh should be at the negotiating table for the return of the Rohingas.